THIS IS NOT IT (YET)
This is not the end times. This is not collapse, Armageddon or the apocalypse. Even if it feels a bit like that at times.
What we’re witnessing, what we’re in, is the collapse of the American empire. It is not the collapse of the larger empire of global destruction. These two processes overlap but they’re not the same thing and are not running on precisely the same timetable.
After the collapse of the American empire there will be a period of global uncertainty. China will grow in strength but will not want to take the position of global superpower. China does not want global hegemony. It never has.
Those who study geopolitics suggest that without a single global superpower the world becomes unstable leading to the breakout of war. This overlooks the fact that a global superpower only ever stays in power through a process of more or less constant war. Nonetheless there may be a period of widespread conflicts as middle powers like Russia and Israel, India or Pakistan see further opportunities to exert their regional power. Others suggest that the US itself will fall into Civil War.
I don’t know for sure if these things will happen but I do know there will be a period after the fall of the American empire when the system as we know it continues unfettered on its course to destroy the planet, before ultimately it collapses, probably sometime during the 2040s.
Why is it important to say this? Because if we are already feeling uncertain, scared, outraged, angry, or disoriented then we need to realise that things are likely to get a lot worse. Your outrage and anger may be justified but as they say, “You ain’t seen nothin yet”. You may not want to hear this but at one level your outrage and anger may also be a response to you losing the privilege that you have gained from the current system.
Where countries in the West are heading has been the reality for the global majority population for years, decades, even centuries. The system is levelling out. The middle classes are disappearing. We are heading to a place where there will be only the super rich (and their security systems) and the rest of us. The 0.1% and the 99.9%. The inequalities, injustices, oppression and destruction of the global order are being revealed for what they are and have always been. From here on they will impact on every single one of us.
Are there “holding actions” we can perform to resist the worst excesses of this rabid beast in its death throes? Perhaps. The cracks in the system as it crumbles may provide niches to protect past gains. But be careful. These past gains were just what our ancestors could beg, borrow or steal from the Table of Empire. They bear very little resemblance to the world our hearts long to create. And don’t forget the aikido of revolution: what you’re for is stronger than what you’re against. Vision beats resistance. “I have a dream” is more powerful than “This is a nightmare”.
And why is this important? Because the transition from this system to the next is a marathon not a sprint. We have time now to prepare. We have time to start building the new system even as the old global order accelerates in its extremity before collapsing in on itself. We are the Phoenix in the ashes of empire.
Think back to Covid: not being able to buy pasta or toilet paper; supermarket shelves being empty; not being able to travel; people losing their jobs. Now imagine this as a semi-permanent state - for years and decade as global supply chains collapse, the rule of law collapses, nation states collapse. Ecosystems, weather cycles, water cycles, ocean cycles all collapsing.
Now look around the place where you live and find what is resilient. What can survive this sort of chaos? What are the foundations that you can build upon? Remember the kind of mutual aid that developed in your community during lockdown. How did neighbours support each other? How did you support the vulnerable? How did you share resources, borrowing from one another? How did you come together in support or consolation, grief or celebration?
Let’s agree to use the coming years to rebuild these things and to take them three or four steps further. Let’s look at where we can grow food, create libraries of things, repair shops, farmers markets. What are the festivals of the year that can bring our community together? Let’s make these into a community meal or a street party, a fire ceremony or midnight rave. We can find our own healers and teachers, our poets, musicians and artists, makers, weavers, builders. They are already here in our communities.
Now is not the time for outrage anger or fear. Now is the time to prepare, to resource ourselves and build our communities for what’s coming. Things will get worse before they get better. Prepare yourself. Find those around you who want to build, grow, share and connect. Become the future now. Together.
